Frida Novy Fajaria, Seto Sugianto Prabowo Rahardjo, Mohamad Fadjar, Febriyani Eka Supriatin, Rani Yuwanita, Arum Pratiwi
Reservoir-based aquaculture is essential for inland fish production but is increasingly constrained by nutrient enrichment, O2 depletion, and ecological instability. This study evaluated the ecological and carrying capacity of the Lahor Reservoir for sustainable aquaculture using an integrated framework combining water-quality assessment, nutrient-based capacity, O2-balance modeling, hypoxia-risk evaluation, and Ecological Balance Index (EBI). Water quality was monitored at three stations from 2022–2024, covering temperature, pH, DO, nitrogen species, phosphate, BOD, and COD. Water Quality Index (WQI) scores classified the reservoir as Suitable to Highly Suitable. However, Total Oxygen Demand (TOD) consistently exceeded in situ DO, resulting in chronic O2 deficits (–2.50 to –6.75 mg L-1), especially during the dry season, when TOD peaked at 11.55 mg L-1. Hypoxia Risk Index (HRI) values indicated moderate to high risk, and nutrient-based trophic conditions fluctuated from oligotrophic to hypereutrophic. EBI results showed At-Risk or Exceeded conditions from March to June, with improvement during the rainy season. Carrying-capacity analysis demonstrated that both O2 and nitrogen dynamics jointly constrain the feasibility of aquaculture. During the dry season, negative ΔN and strong O2–TOD imbalances eliminated stocking potential entirely, while the rainy season provided limited windows of feasibility, supporting modest densities of 3–22 fish m-2. © 2026, Egyptian Society for the Development of Fisheries and Human Health. All rights reserved.
Department of Aquaculture, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Brawijaya University, Jl. Veteran, East Java, Malang, 65145, Indonesia; Sustainable Agricultural Extension Department, Agricultural Development Polytechnic of Malang, Jl. Dr. Cipto Bedali, East Java, Lawang, 65216, Indonesia; Center for Shrimp Research Commodity, Brawijaya University, East Java, Indonesia
