Agus Miswanto, Umar Dani, David Candra Birawidha, Kusno Isnugroho, Ridwan Sutriadi, Muhammad Ihsan Yudanto, Anandhika Arifianto, Meisha Putra Dewan, Amelia Andriani, Hendra Prasetia, Gyan Prameswara, Himawan Tri Bayu Murti Petrus
The relocation of the capital of Indonesia to East Kalimantan has introduced a policy restricting the expansion of mining business permits as part of the sustainable development agenda. While aligned with long-term environmental and governance objectives, this policy generates potential risks for government institutions, industry, and local communities. This study applied the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with Fuzzy AHP to identify and prioritize these strategic risks. A hierarchical framework was constructed based on four main criteria—economic, regulatory, social and environmental—further elaborated into 21 sub-criteria validated through literature review and expert consultation. The sub-criteria were derived using a multi-stage process involving literature synthesis and expert judgment to establish content validity prior to the AHP–Fuzzy AHP analysis. Data were collected via structured expert questionnaires and analyzed using triangular fuzzy number weighting and ratio consistency testing. The results indicated that economy risks, particularly reduced investment and rising compliance costs, hold the highest priority weight (0.302), followed by social risk (0.274) and regulation risks (0.240). Environmental risks (0.184), while comparatively lower in aggregate weight, remained critical in relation to reclamation obligations and pollution management. These findings provide a basis for evidence-based mitigation strategies and support a just and orderly transition in mining governance during the establishment of the new capital region. © The Japan Section of the Regional Science Association International 2026.
Research Center for Geological Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency, Bandung, Indonesia; Research Center for Mineral Technology, National Research and Innovation Agency, Lampung, Indonesia; Urban and Regional Planning Department, School of Architecture, Planning, and Policy Development (SAPPD), Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia; Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Chulalongkorn University, 254 Phayathai Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand; Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia; Department of Chemical Engineering (Sustainable Mineral Metallurgical Processes Research Group), Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Grafika No. 2, Kampus UGM, Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia; Unconventional Geo-Resources Research Group, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Grafika No. 2, Kampus UGM, Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia; Department of mineral-chemical Engineering, Politeknik ATI Makassar, Jl. Sunu No. 220, Makassar, 90211, Indonesia; Research Center for Mining Technology, National Research and Innovation Agency, Lampung, Indonesia
