Sensitivity analysis and optimal control of a cholera epidemic model with quarantine and saturated incidence rate

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Trisilowati, Ummu Habibah, Nur Shofianah, Lusiana Septiani, Angelina P. Sondakh Simbolon, Ahmad Zidan Nur Hakim

2025 AIP Conference Proceedings Vol. 3302 Issue 1 Conference paper Cited by 4 Quartile

Abstract

Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio Cholerae and can be transmitted quickly in an unsanitary environment. Without proper treatment, someone who is infected with this bacterium can die. Several efforts that can be made to manage the spread of cholera disease are education, treatment, vaccination, sanitation, and quarantine. The purpose of this research is to determine the most optimal strategy in controlling the spread of cholera disease. First, a model for the spread of infectious diseases of the SIRQB type (susceptible, infective, recovered, quarantine, and bacteria) will be constructed. The spread of cholera is modeled through a nonlinear differential equation approach. Sensitivity analysis then is carried out to determine the parameters that play an important role in the spread of cholera. Furthermore, in the model that has been constructed, control variables are involved, including education, vaccination, and treatment to control the spread of the disease. Pontryagin's principle is applied to solve optimal control problems. Finally, the simulation of the model will be performed to illustrate the results of the analysis and determine the most optimal strategy in controlling the spread of the cholera disease. © 2025 Author(s).

Affiliations

Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia