Tarranita Kusumadewi, Surjono Surjono, Amin Setyo Leksono, Salma Ainur Rohma, Sofia Amalia Husna, Ahmad Fahmi Karami, Yunifa Miftachul Arif
Complex interactions between environmental, social, and urban density factors drive Urban Heat Island (UHI) dynamics. The current study synthesizes multidimensional metrics, including normalized difference indices, such as vegetation (NDVI), water (NDWI), moisture (NDMI), and social parameters (population density), such as urban morphology metrics (UDI) and built-up index (NDBI) to predict UHI intensity using remote sensing data and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Landsat-8, Sentinel-2A, and NASA-SRTM data from 2014 to 2023 were used to analyze Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends and spatially identify UHI hotspots in Malang City, Indonesia. The SVR model demonstrated robust performance, achieving an R² of 0.78, an RMSE of 0.23, and a MAPE of 0.46%. Results indicate that increasing urban density (UDI and NDBI) and population density significantly amplify LST, while higher NDVI values mitigate UHI effects. Temporal and spatial analyses reveal a steady expansion of UHI hotspots from central districts (e.g. Klojen) to peripheral areas (e.g. Sukun and Kedungkandang), driven by vegetation loss and urban sprawl. These findings underscore the potential of synthesizing multidimensional metrics for UHI prediction and highlight the value of integrating remote sensing data with machine learning models. The study provides actionable insights for urban planners to design targeted interventions, such as urban greening and density management, to mitigate UHI effects and enhance urban sustainability. © by the authors.
University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia; Department of Architecture, State Islamic University of Malang, Malang, Indonesia; Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Engineering and Centre of Environmental Studies, University of Brawijaya, Indonesia; Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, University of Brawijaya, Indonesia; Department of Informatics Engineering, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim, Malang, Indonesia; Department of Architecture, State Islamic University of Malang, Malang, Indonesia; Department of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim, Malang, Indonesia
