Monte Carlo-Based Bayesian Path Analysis for Modeling Indirect Financial Effects on Literacy in Emerging Markets

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Fachira Haneinanda Junianto, Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes, Solimun Solimun, Ani Budi Astuti

2025 Journal of Economic Integration Vol. 40 Issue 4 Article Cited by 1 Quartile

Abstract

Banking literacy is an important foundation in realizing financial inclusion, especially in developing countries such as Indonesia. This study examines the indirect effects of payment instrument use, financial inclusion, and financial capacity on banking literacy, with financial knowledge as a mediator. A Bayesian Parametric Path Analysis approach is used with estimation through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Primary data were obtained from a national survey of 600 respondents selected through multistage sampling. Results show that the three exogenous variables have significant indirect effects through financial knowledge, with credible intervals of all paths above zero. The Bayesian approach allows flexible estimation and probabilistic interpretation. The findings provide theoretical contributions and practical implications for financial education policies that support the digital transformation of banking services. © 2025-Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, All Rights Reserved.

Affiliations

Department of Mathematics, University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia; Department of Statistics, University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia; Data Science and Statistics for Business Analytic Center, University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia