Ratih Indri Hapsari, Satoru Oishi, Kengo Sunada, Tetsuya Sano, Dian Sisinggih
This paper describes the ensemble approach to account for the uncertainty in both rainfall and hydrological short-term prediction. The range of probabilistic products generated by ensemble prediction and their potential for obtaining flood risk estimates is demonstrated. An ensemble rainfall prediction is developed by perturbing the initial condition of the radar echo extrapolation model. The ensemble members are subsequently considered as uncertain input of the distributed hydrological model. Uncertainty in rainfall-runoff model parameters is assessed by the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The methodology is demonstrated through case studies in the Kofu urban river basin, Japan. The results reveal that plausible results can be achieved, thus indicating that this approach could serve as a reliable method for estimating the uncertainty range in short-term prediction of runoff dynamics. When utilized along with the flood damage model, we highlight the value of ensemble prediction for deriving flood risk information through risk mapping. © 2013 IAHS Press.
Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi, Kofu 400-8510, 4-3-11 Takeda, Japan; Research Centre for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, Nada-ku, Kobe 657-8501, 1-1 Rokko-dai, Japan; International Research Centre for River Basin Environment, University of Yamanashi, Kofu 400-8510, 4-3-11 Takeda, Japan; Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Brawijaya, Malang 65145, Jl. MT. Haryono 167, Indonesia
