Marsudi, Marjono, Ari Andari
This paper examines the effect of screening and HIV therapy on the dynamics of the spread of HIV in a population. In modeling of the dynamics of HIV, the population is divided into five subpopulations: susceptible, unaware infectives, screened infectives, therapy infectives, and AIDS patients. The effective reproduction numbers are calculated using the next generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis discovers parameters that have a high impact on effective reproduction number and should be targeted by intervention strategies. Sensitivity indices is used to measure the relative change in the effective reproduction number if a parameter change. The results shows that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number is less than one and unstable when the effective reproduction number is greater than one. According to the analysis, screening of unaware infectives and trerapy of screened HIV infectives have the effect of reducing the transmission of the disease. Finally, numerical simulation of the model shows that the most sensitive parameter is contact rate of unaware infectives with susceptibles, allowed by the rate of progression of unaware infectives to screened infectives. © 2014 Marsudi, Marjono and Ari Andari.
Department of Mathematics, Brawijaya University, Malang, 65145, Indonesia
