Gold price movement forecasting using hybrid ES-FIS

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Andreas Nugroho Sihananto, Fitra A. Bachtiar

2017 Proceedings - 2017 International Conference on Sustainable Information Engineering and Technology, SIET 2017 Vol. 2018-January Conference paper Cited by 3 Quartile

Abstract

Gold is the most popular commodity that has been used for the exchange of goods for centuries. For a trader, the most important thing to gain profit on gold-exchange trading world is to know the behaviour gold price, when it will be moving down or moving up in the stock market. Gold prices affected by some economic factors such as foreign exchange but most methods that studied gold forecasting only focused on technical analysis using time series and historical price. This paper is trying to formulate fundamental analysis to forecast gold price by using a hybrid between Evolution Strategies and Fuzzy Inference System. It resulted in lower error based on MAE compared to regular FIS, with the value is 9.46 for regular FIS Mamdani and 2.73 for ES-FIS. © 2017 IEEE.

Affiliations

Faculty of Computer Science, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia