F. Riza
Land-use change has emerged as a strategic issue in regional development dynamics, particularly under the growing pressures of population increase and rapid economic activities. The conversion of agricultural land into residential and industrial zones has led to ecological degradation and poses a serious threat to food security. This study aims to examine the dynamics of land-use change in Tuban Regency, East Java, using a spatial modelling approach based on Cellular Automata (CA) integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The method simulates the patterns and potential of land-use conversion from 2019 to 2044. The simulation results reveal a significant decline in agricultural land area and a corresponding increase in residential and industrial zones, especially in areas with high accessibility. The projections for 2044 indicate a continuing trend of urban expansion, accompanied by a reduction in both production forests and farmland. A Neural Network model applied to identify potential land-use transitions achieved a high accuracy rate of 93.08% with a skill measure of 0.8615. Proximity to existing settlements and collector roads were found to be the most influential driving factors. These findings highlight the urgent need for spatially informed land-use policies to maintain a sustainable balance between economic development, environmental conservation, and long-term food security. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Urban and Regional Planning, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia
