M.Y.E. Fahmi
East Java plays a central role in Indonesia's food self-sufficiency strategy, contributing 17.4% of the national rice production in 2024. Despite this, the region faces a gradual decline in production and increasing consumption pressures, which points to the importance of a sustainable agropolitan development model. This study aims to identify opportunities and challenges in transforming East Java's rice-producing regions into agropolitan hubs through the integration of production trends, spatial patterns, human resource capacities, infrastructure, and policy alignment. Employing ARIMA-family modeling, spatial clustering, geospatial overlay analysis, and policy content review, the study reveals systemic disparities in infrastructure service levels and regional productivity. It finds that surplus-producing regions are unevenly matched with consumption centers and that infrastructure fragmentation constrains performance in peripheral zones. Moreover, high production correlates with persistent rural poverty, suggesting the need for equity-centered institutional reform. National policies, particularly the 2025-2029 RPJMN, offer strategic alignment opportunities but require enhanced local governance capacity and stakeholder collaboration. The study concludes that sustainable agropolitan transformation depends on innovation, policy coherence, and social inclusivity, ensuring long-Term food security and rural resilience. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia
